OSNOVA Blog Mortgage share, 2015–2026
Commercial · Buyer Structure

Only 12% of Dubai office deals now use a mortgage — about a third of the 2018 share

In 2018, roughly two in five office purchases in Dubai involved a registered mortgage. By 2026 that's fallen to about one in eight — while deal volume rose and the average check size roughly quadrupled. Three numbers, read together, tell a fuller story than any one of them alone.

Aleksandr Maksimenko·26 Jul 2026·8 min read·Source: DLD + Ejari, 2015–2026
2018 peak
39.4%
of deals used a mortgage
2026 YTD
12.0%
lowest on record
Avg ticket, 2020
AED 631,680
per transaction
Avg ticket, 2026
AED 2,561,280
×4.1 the 2020 figure
Three metrics, same twelve years
YearDealsAvg ticket, AEDMortgage share
20152,3811,188,17627.9%
20161,6441,043,64136.9%
20171,5491,000,00034.6%
20181,217828,10039.4%
20191,319700,00023.9%
2020912631,68028.1%
20211,776720,04019.6%
20222,223837,40020.4%
20232,7801,007,45012.1%
20242,9581,315,89215.2%
20254,5601,798,41413.8%
20263,0932,561,28012.0%

In 2018, 39.4% of Dubai office purchases involved a registered mortgage — roughly two in every five deals. By 2026, that share has fallen to 12.0%, close to one in eight. Read on its own, that looks like a market getting harder to finance. Read alongside two other numbers from the same twelve years — deal volume and average ticket size — it reads as something closer to the opposite: a market where the buyer base has shifted toward people who don't need financing at all.

The decline isn't a straight line — but the direction hasn't reversed since 2018

Mortgage share bounced around in the mid-to-high 20s and 30s from 2015 to 2020 — 27.9% in 2015, up to 39.4% at the 2018 peak, then down to 23.9% in 2019 as the broader market slowed. It fell sharply after 2020: 19.6% in 2021, 20.4% in 2022, then a step down to 12.1% in 2023 — a level it has essentially held ever since, at 15.2% (2024), 13.8% (2025) and 12.0% (2026 YTD). Whatever drove the 2018-2023 shift, it hasn't reversed in three full years since.

Market · 2015–2026
Share of office deals involving a registered mortgage, %
View as table
YearMortgage share
201527.9%
201636.9%
201734.6%
201839.4%
201923.9%
202028.1%
202119.6%
202220.4%
202312.1%
202415.2%
202513.8%
202612.0%
Source: DLD registered sales, mortgage group vs. cash. 2026 is Jan–Aug.

What moved alongside it: bigger checks, more of them

The average office transaction was AED 631,680 in 2020. By 2026 it's AED 2,561,280 — roughly four times larger. And this wasn't a smaller number of larger deals; deal volume rose over the same stretch too, from 912 transactions in 2020 to an annualized pace above 5,000 in 2026. A market where the typical deal has gotten this much bigger, and there are more of them, is a market where the buyer base has shifted toward investors and institutions writing larger checks outright, rather than owner-occupiers financing a purchase against income.

×4.1
how much larger the average office ticket is in 2026 (AED 2,561,280) than at the 2020 low (AED 631,680) — the same six years mortgage share was falling.

Why cash, structurally

Cash removes financing risk and timeline entirely, which matters more as check sizes climb and as sellers increasingly favor speed and certainty of close — a cash buyer can move on a deal in days, a financed one in weeks. It also matters more in a market with the kind of price volatility we've documented elsewhere on this site: a mortgage approved against one month's valuation can be a mismatch against the next month's, in a market where medians have moved 30-40% month to month (see our price-quadrupling piece for the year-by-year detail). None of that proves causation on its own, but the pattern — bigger, more frequent, less financed — points in one consistent direction.

Correlation, not proofThese three series moving together — rising ticket size, rising volume, falling mortgage share — is consistent with a cash-heavy, investor-driven buyer base, but the DLD data doesn't record buyer intent or financing reasons directly. Other forces (interest-rate conditions, bank lending policy, a shift in buyer nationality mix) could contribute too; we're reporting the pattern, not claiming to have isolated a single cause.
A market moving away from mortgages isn't a market getting cheaper to enter. It's the opposite — the buyers who remain can write bigger checks without one.— OSNOVA analysis

What this means if you are financing

None of this means mortgage-financed office purchases have disappeared — 12% of a market that did 3,093 deals through August 2026 is still several hundred transactions a year. But a shrinking share means fewer comparable financed deals to benchmark a bank valuation against, and a market increasingly priced by buyers who aren't sensitive to financing costs, appraisal timelines, or loan-to-value limits at all. Worth knowing which kind of buyer you're competing against before making an offer — and worth building extra time into any offer that depends on approval, in a market moving this fast around you.

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